Every year, right around mid-November, I get the same email from a client.
“Hey… do you think I’ll have enough cash to cover January?”
And every year, I resist the urge to pour a glass of wine before replying.
Because here’s the thing: January is not when cash flow problems begin, it’s when they finally show up.
If you don’t start planning your cash flow now, you’ll spend the first quarter of 2026 trying to recover instead of growing.
Cash Flow ≠ Profit (and That’s the Trap)
Let’s clear something up: profit and cash flow are not the same thing.
You can have a great year on paper and still run out of money in real life. Why? Because profit is an accounting metric. Cash flow is your survival plan.
Profit says, “You earned money.” Cash flow says, “Can you pay your bills next month?”
Your numbers might look brilliant in a spreadsheet, but if your January bank balance can’t fund payroll or tax payments, something’s off.
How to Build a Cash Flow Forecast (Without Crying About It)
You don’t need a degree in finance to forecast your cash flow, just a little structure and honesty.
Here’s where to start:
- Pull your recurring expenses.
Subscriptions, rent, payroll, taxes — these are your non-negotiables. Get the real monthly total, not a guess. - List your recurring revenue.
Retainers, memberships, consistent clients — what’s predictable? What’s seasonal? - Identify the gaps.
Where are the slow months? Where are the spikes? A visual cash flow calendar helps you see where you’ll need reserves. - Set aside a “float fund.”
Aim for one month of operating expenses in cash reserves. It’s not glamorous, but it keeps you from operating in panic mode. - Review it monthly.
Cash flow forecasts aren’t “set it and forget it.” They evolve as your business does. Make reviewing it a CEO habit, not a crisis response.
The CEO Advantage: Predict, Don’t React
Entrepreneurs who forecast are calmer.
They don’t make fear-based decisions.
They don’t chase every client who waves a check.
They know exactly when to push, when to pause, and when to plan a vacation without guilt.
So before you disappear into holiday chaos, take an hour to build your January through March cash flow. You’ll start 2026 like a strategist, not a survivor.
Your business doesn’t need miracles. It needs math — and a CEO willing to look ahead.
